1. SF Giants in 2012 Playoffs = Getting 95 Wins

    (Precaution: This will be a somewhat analytical post, so take a deep breath first.)

    The formula you see is what baseball statistician, Bill James, conjured up to gauge a team’s expected success.

    I decided to use it for my beloved San Francisco Giants.

    Here is what I came up with…

    On average for the past 3 years, the Giants have allowed 546 runs. Just in case you’re counting, that’s about 3.37 runs/game. Pretty amazing.

    On the offensive side, the Giants, on the same three year average, have scored 641 runs. For those of you still counting, that’s 3.95 runs/game. Kind of really horrible. The top team last year scored 875 runs (Boston). That’s 5.4 runs/game! I’ll explain my enthusiasm.

    I believe the Giants would need to win a minimum of 95 games to make it to the post season. If they stay on track with their 3 year averages, Bill James says they’ll get 93 wins.

    Runs Scored: 641, Runs Allowed: 546 = 93 Wins (Based off of 3 year history)

    Not bad, but not enough.

    To get those 95 wins, they’ll need to score 24 more runs than the three year average. That’s one extra run every 6 games.

    665, 546 = 95 Wins (Runs needed to make playoffs)

    Remember, how I said Boston scored 5.4 runs/game last year? They won 90 games with that. The Giants “only need” to score 3.95 runs/game and that’s our ticket to 95!!!

    Seems so simple, but if you’re still reading, I’m guessing you already know how bad the Giant bats are.

    Meh… either way, pitchers and catchers report in less than a month. Baseball is almost here, and the Giants’ race to 95 wins or 665 runs is almost upon us.

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